Final Evaluation Results

Valuations: 50, 100, 500, 400

Median Valuation: 250.0

Eliza: Politics article was cool, I hope he gets paid for it. I don't know what the actual rate for an article is but 50 sounds like a good start.

Tod Waddington: Just read his article, loved it, but I guess that's it?

Rachel: The politics article is pretty good! 18 likes is impressive, seems like one of the most-liked articles from the Manifold Substack.

Austin: I appreciate the blog post that Conflux produced; it interweaves a bunch of Manifold markets into the story of the Biden nomination. This is a format that I'd like to explore more of, and commission consistent content showcasing how markets can tell a story! I think typical rates we'd be willing to pay for a commission for a single article are on the ballpark of $200-$300, but in this case I think the quality of the post merits a small increase in the rate.

I wrote a politics article for the Manifold newsletter! It received 17 of those heart things on Substack, and multiple people posted comments saying they appreciated it. https://news.manifold.markets/p/how-inevitable-is-bidens-nomination

I think Manifold is doing good work with Manifold Politics, and does have a path to gaining the FiveThirtyEight demographic. We, too, have a lot of data-driven political analysis of a lot of different subquestions. I think supplementing this with politics coverage is somewhat high-value in terms of broadening Manifold's platform; I would be interested in writing more articles as things in the news happen - or maybe during the summer in some kind of intern position. Could be a growth vector for Manifold if one of these gets popular or something. In terms of value to the world...it definitely makes politics nerds happier, idk if it does more than that, if I'm being honest. I think I would try to keep it to predictions and not venture into the realm of potentially-cancellable takes.

January 15th Evaluation Results

Valuations: 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0

Weighted Median Valuation: 0

Eliza: It's a zero but it sounds like you found much better uses of your time than being an overworked, underpaid advertising intern for a website, so I think that's just fine.

cc6: Nothing has happened

Isaac King: No product. $0.

wasabipesto: I'm glad Jacob is taking some time for relaxation (but I am also looking forward to an updated nice numbers video!)

Rachel: No progress.

SG: No comment

James: There wasn't any progress.

Austin: Still very excited to see what Jacob comes up with!

What progress have you made since your last update?

None…
I know it’s January, when I said I’d start doing things. I’ve gotten less busy, but

• I’ve been allocating some of my slack toward relaxation + better sleep schedule + better quality of schoolwork

• I never had a clear idea of what I was doing for this project

• I’ve been using some of my project time for things where I do have clear ideas (a puzzle event I’m running; a college app-related technology (currently nicknamed The College App App) that I’m in the early stages of concepting; a better version of that nice numbers video…hopefully; a paid Metaculus position I might end of taking; etc)

What are your next steps?

Even though there’s only one month left in the community fund, I’m trying not to specifically optimize for the community fund. I think in the long run I will do additional things that add value to Manifold.

Another next step is that I’ve been meaning to chat with (someone from) the Manifold team about contributions for me. Austin told me that the next Taco Tuesday he’d be at would be in February, so I might go to that. Obviously it’s also possible to schedule a zoom call etc, but I’d rather it be more informal.

Oh also, the College App App could have some Manifold integrations/connections. I don’t think it’s the focus of the product idea, but it could plausibly still exist under the Manifold umbrella. I’m hoping to publish a spec of the College App App that I could link somewhere like here, but we’ll see what I get done.

Is there anything others could help you with?

I guess the main thing would be a clear idea of something I could do for Manifold that would be higher-impact than the other projects I’m doing. But also, I think there’s a decent chance I pursue the other projects and this ends up with a valuation of zero. Sorry investors….

December 15th Evaluation Results

Valuations: 0, 0, 500, 420, 0

Median Valuation: 0

SG: Not started.

Rachel: Looks like nothing has shipped yet, though I’m excited to see what Conflux comes up with.

Inga Wei: Conflux is great and I think whatever he puts his mind to will be successful

Sinclair: This exact amount will motivate conflux more than a higher amount

A project with no details!? I do think conflux has been good for us but even so, there's just not enough in the application to justify a higher amount

Austin: My prior on Conflux is also quite high; we’re just waiting to see what he comes out with. One idea is to set up some kind of puzzle hunt for Manifold users (I’m continually impressed that Conflux published a puzzle book and also made a puzzle for NYT). His writing has also been high quality (eg on the search for nice numbers), and I think some articles contributed to the Manifold newsletter/journal could be very valuable.

I also think that collaborating on projects is good, and would encourage Conflux and cc6 to team up somewhat

I think Conflux has contributed a lot of value to Manifold in the past so I am generally bullish on his chances of doing so again once he figures out how to!

Also investing a small amount as a show of support for Conflux, though I'd definitely love to see more details eventually :P

Austin has stated that Manifold is willing to retroactively fund some of my past projects

To clarify, the Manifold Community Fund payout criteria will be for impact realized between checkpoints, so exclusive of past "impact". The first payout will assess impact from Nov 15-Dec 15 -- so previous eg views of MMP would be excluded, but if an old MMP episode went viral on Dec 1st, then that would count for impact.